Accession Number:

ADA464444

Title:

Course of Action Development and Evaluation

Descriptive Note:

Research paper

Corporate Author:

GEORGE MASON UNIV FAIRFAX VA CENTER OF EXCELLENCE IN COMMAND CONTROL COMMUNICATIONS AND INTELLIGENCE

Report Date:

2000-01-01

Pagination or Media Count:

19.0

Abstract:

This paper describes a set of procedures that will enhance the analysis, synthesis, and execution of courses of action COA. The paper presents a set of formal methods for extending the capability of probabilistic models influence nets to produce rigorous mathematical models that reveal the impact of the sequence and timing of actionable events on the outcome and effects desired in a situation. By incorporating timing information, such a model can be converted to a Discrete Event System DES model in the form of a Colored Petri Net. The DES model, when run as a simulation, can reveal the changes in the likelihood of the desired effects over time for any timed sequence of actionable events that constitute a COA. The paper presents DES analysis techniques that can generate all of the possible sequences of probability values of the outcome given any COA without simulation. Procedures are presented to select desirable sequences from the set of all sequences and determine the temporal relationships among the actionable events that will generate a selected sequence of probability values.

Subject Categories:

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Computer Programming and Software
  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics
  • Command, Control and Communications Systems

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE