Overcoming Ambiguity at the Operational Level
NAVAL WAR COLL NEWPORT RI JOINT MILITARY OPERATIONS DEPT
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Overcoming Ambiguity at the Operational Level. Leaders are forced to make decisions with imperfect information on a regular basis. Time constraints necessitate action before complete information can be obtained. Other decisions must be made based on ambiguous information that can be interpreted in multiple ways. Both the nature of the decision and the information used as input play an important role in determining where, organizationally, the decision should be made. Bayes formula for contingent probabilities is useful for demonstrating how organizational decisions can impact rational decision makers faced with ambiguity by demonstrating how expectations are revised with new information. When taking other operational considerations into account, it may also be useful for identifying decisions that should be made in certain locations. Once an optimal decision point is identified, the operational commander should allocate resources and establish procedures to properly align his staff.
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics