Reading the Mind of the Enemy: Predictive Analysis and Command Effectiveness
SOLERS INC ARLINGTON VA
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The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DARPA Real-time Adversarial Intelligence and Decision-making RAID program is investigating the feasibility of reading the mind of the enemy to estimate and anticipate, in real-time, the enemys likely goals, deceptions, actions, movements and positions. This program focuses specifically on urban battles at echelons of battalion and below. The RAID program leverages approximate game-theoretic and deception-sensitive algorithms to provide real-time enemy estimates to a tactical commander. A key hypothesis of the program is that these predictions and recommendations will make the commander more effective, i.e. he should be able to achieve his operational goals safer, faster, and more efficiently. Realistic experimentation and evaluation drive the development process using human-in-the-loop wargames to compare humans and the RAID system. Two experiments were conducted in 2005 as part of Phase I to determine if the RAID software could make predictions and recommendations as effectively and accurately as a 4-person experienced staff. This report discusses the intriguing and encouraging results of these first two experiments conducted by the RAID program. It also provides details about the experiment environment and methodology that were used to demonstrate and prove the research goals.
- Unconventional Warfare
- Command, Control and Communications Systems