Pilot Willingness to Take Off Into Marginal Weather. Part 2. Antecedent Overfitting with Forward Stepwise Logistic Regression
FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION OKLAHOMA CITY OK CIVIL AEROMEDICAL INST
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Adverse weather is the leading cause of fatalities in general aviation GA. In prior research, influences of ground visibility, cloud ceiling height, financial incentive, and personality were tested on 60 GA pilots willingness to take off into simulated adverse weather. Results suggested that pilots did not see weather as a monolithic cognitive construct but, rather, as an interaction between its separate factors. However, methodological issues arose during the use of logistic regression in modeling the effect of 60 candidate predictors on the outcome variable of takeoff into adverse weather. It was found quite possible to obtain false significance for models comprised merely of random numbers, even when the number of model predictors was limited to a conventional 110. Therefore, Monte Carlo simulations were used to derive unbiased estimates of model significance and R2 values. Research in correction for this casecandidate predictor ratio effect is relatively new and noteworthy, particularly in the social sciences. It was given the name antecedent overfitting to contrast with the more commonly known postcedent type, which is based on a small casemodel predictor ratio.
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