Sensitivity of TOSOM Outputs to Threat Tree Variability
ARMY TANK-AUTOMOTIVE COMMAND WARREN MI SURVIVABILITY RESEARCH DIV
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This paper will examine two issues of concern regarding the Threat-Oriented Survivability Optimization Model TOSOM 1 the variability of the survivability of a baseline platform given random fluctuations of the threat tree to which the platform is subjected, and 2 the stability of the ranking of countermeasure effectiveness given random fluctuations of the threat tree. TOSOM is a quick, easy to use, first-order model designed to assist the decision maker in selecting affordable, integrable, and effective suites of countermeasures, including armor, signature reduction, and hard- and soft-kill hit avoidance. Its purpose is to optimize survivability within constraints on cost and other burdens, such as weight and power consumption. This paper demonstrates that if the threat tree that is input to TOSOM is perturbed at random by some small amount, then the baseline that is, no countermeasures survivability of the platform under consideration is perturbed by some proportionately small amount, and the ranking of the effectiveness of the countermeasures applicable to the platform generally remains the same. In this paper, generic platforms of high baseline survivability, such as a tank, medium baseline survivability, such as an infantry fighting vehicle IFV, and low baseline survivability, such as a truck, are examined. Along with each of the three baseline platforms, each of five initial threat trees are randomly perturbed at each node with five different levels of variability - 5, - 12.5, - 25, - 50, - 100, creating five altered threat trees in addition to the initial threat tree. Then, for each of the three platforms, the author shows that baseline survivability is only modestly affected by modest perturbations of its threat tree, and that the ranking of countermeasures selected to protect that platform also remains highly constant.
- Combat Vehicles
- Escape, Rescue and Survival