A Smallpox and an Inhalation Anthrax Model Implemented Using Ordinary Differential Equations
MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH LEXINGTON LINCOLN LAB
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This report presents one approach for modeling smallpox and inhalation anthrax outbreaks using ODEs ordinary differential equations. This approach is related to a standard SEIR susceptible exposed infected recovered model. For each model, we define the states that characterize the uninfected and infected populations, the parameters governing disease progression, and the ODEs that govern the transitions between the population states. In both models, medical capacity and treatment limitations are considered. To quantify the benefit of an early public health response, the number of cases and deaths resulting from an outbreak are determined as a function of delay in public health response. The smallpox model indicates that early initiation of a mass vaccination campaign can significantly reduce the number of deaths. The anthrax model indicates that distribution of antibiotics at a high rate within the first day following a large attack can save nearly all those exposed. Future work will focus on replacing the ODEs with probability distribution functions based on data from outbreaks doing so will lead to a more accurate model of the incubation periods and, in turn, a more accurate estimate of the benefit of an early response.
- Medicine and Medical Research
- Weapons Effects (Biological)