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Transport and Dispersion Model Predictions of Elevated Source Tracer Experiments in the Copenhagen Area: Comparisons of Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) and National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) Emergency Response Model Predictions
Final rept., Jan 2005-May 2006
INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA
Pagination or Media Count:
The U.S. Government has invested in sophisticated computer models to predict the transport and dispersion TD and the ensuing human effects of Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear CBRN agents and materials. As new modeling capabilities are added, there is a continuing need to verify and validate TD models through rigorous comparisons to field trial data. Since 2000, IDA has taken part in verification and validation activities connected with the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability HPAC model developed by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency DTRA. In past studies we have compared the predictions of HPAC to several field trial data sets, covering a broad range of release conditions, terrain, and weather conditions. IDA has also conducted comparative evaluation studies involving the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center NARAC emergency response model developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Additional insight into model performance and capabilities can be gleaned by comparing the model predictions of two or more models to field trial data and to one another, which is the approach taken in the present study.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE