Evaluation of Convective Wind Forecasting Methods During High Wind Events
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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This study investigates convective wind gust forecasting methods for reported gusts in the Midwest, Central, and Northeast United States from June and July 2005. Three methods are examined using MM5 model data the T1 and T2 methods and the WINDEX method. The model-derived wind gusts determined by each method are then compared to wind reports from the Storm Prediction Centers severe storm reports archive and reports from observing stations. Model-derived wind gusts are then compared to the observed wind gusts for varying times of day and observed wind gust ranges. Wind gust frequency plots are examined for each wind method to determine accuracy and to characterize any patterns. The T1 method was the most accurate overall for this study, but was shown to be less sensitive to varying atmospheric conditions. The T2 method was the least accurate of the three methods during all situations. The WINDEX method performed well in most situations and was nearly as accurate as the T1 method, while WINDEX also proved to be the most sensitive of the three to varying mesoscale conditions.