The Impacts of Climate Variations on Military Operations in the Horn of Africa
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
Pagination or Media Count:
Department of Defense DoD climatology products rely mainly on long term means LTMs of climate system variables. In this project, we have demonstrated that climatologies based on LTMs can be substantially improved using modern data and methods, especially by accounting for climate variations. We analyzed, and identified mechanisms for, enhanced suppressed autumn precipitation in the Horn of Africa HOA during El Nino La Nina events. El Nino La Nina precipitation anomalies were associated with anomalously warm cool western Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, and with anomalously onshore offshore moisture transports in the HOA. These transport anomalies supported anomalously strong weak precipitation over the HOA. To improve climatological support for DoD operations, we developed and tested a six-step smart climatology process. We applied this process in the context of a notional, unclassified non-combatant evacuation operation NEO set in the HOA during autumn of an El Nino year. Using this process, we translated our scientific and operational findings into warfighter impacts. The smart climatology process we have developed is readily adaptable to other regions, seasons, climate variations, and military operations. We have provided a detailed description of our smart climatology process to facilitate its use by DoD agencies.
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics