Stochastic and Simulation Models of Maritime Intercept Operations Capabilities
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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The research formulates and exercises stochastic and simulation models to assess the Maritime Intercept Operations MIO capabilities. The models focus on the surveillance operations of the Maritime Patrol Aircraft MPA. The analysis using the models estimates the probability with which a terrorist vessel Red is detected, correctly classified, and escorted for intensive investigation and neutralization before it leaves an area of interest AOI. The difficulty of obtaining adequate interception of the Red depends upon the AOI size, the number of neutral vessels in the AOI, detection and identification capabilities, information retention, and close coordination between the MPA and investigative maritime vessels in various situations. The analysis ultimately provides quantitative guidance on the relative importance of the MIO capabilities. Although the models focus on the MPA operations, the analysis additionally provides various insights and recommendations to other defense components.
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics