Accession Number:

ADA439578

Title:

The Path to Terrorist Violence: A Threat Assessment Model for Radical Groups at Risk of Escalation to Acts of Terrorism

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS

Personal Author(s):

• Olson, Dean T.

Report Date:

2005-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

77.0

Abstract:

A threat assessment model to identify domestic radical groups on a trajectory towards terrorist violence remains an elusive goal. The lack of a model constrains proactive counter-terrorism efforts resulting in largely reactive strategies that often are ineffectual in discovering and disrupting terrorist plots while in an inchoate stage. The Path to Terrorist Violence Model, based on a threat assessment model used in the emerging field of threat management for the judiciary and elected officials, is a valid and reliable assessment methodology to identify radical groups at risk of escalation to acts of terrorism. By focusing on attack-related behaviors that a group must take to mount a planned attack, the Path to Terrorist Violence avoids contentious issues related to psychosocial, religious, race or ethnicity-based profiling assumptions.

Descriptors:

• *TERRORISM
• METHODOLOGY
• RISK
• STRATEGY
• MANAGEMENT
• MODELS
• THREATS
• PATHS
• REACTIVITIES
• RELIABILITY
• THREAT EVALUATION
• DOMESTIC
• TRAJECTORIES
• PLOTTING

Subject Categories:

• Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics
• Unconventional Warfare

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE