Accession Number:

ADA439532

Title:

Optimizing the Long-Term Capacity Expansion and Protection of Iraqi Oil Infrastructure

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2005-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

139.0

Abstract:

This thesis introduces a tri-level defender-attacker-defender optimization model that prescribes how Iraqs oil infrastructure can, over time, be expanded, protected, and operated, even in the face of insurgent attacks. The outer-most defender model is a mixed-integer program that, given a set of anticipated insurgent attacks, specifies a quarterly capital expansion, defense, and operation plan to maximize oil exports over a decade-long planning horizon. The intermediate attacker model, observing the outer defender plans, is a mixed integer program that re-optimizes insurgent attacks to minimize export flow. The inner-most defender model is a linear program that redirects flow in response to insurgent damage. The author uses open-source descriptions of current Iraqi oil infrastructure and reasonable estimates of the costs to expand capacity andor defend operating assets, and reduce vulnerability to attacks. He solves this tri-level model by converting it into an equivalent bi-level one, and applying decomposition. For a range of scenarios, he determines the best allocation of effort between improving oil export infrastructure, and defending it.

Subject Categories:

  • Geology, Geochemistry and Mineralogy
  • Mining Engineering
  • Manufacturing and Industrial Engineering and Control of Production Systems
  • Civil Defense
  • Unconventional Warfare

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE