Forecasting Medical Materiel Requirements for Contingency Operations
ACADEMY OF HEALTH SCIENCES (ARMY) FORT SAM HOUSTON TX HEALTH CARE ADMINISTRATION
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This qualitative study addresses the issue of poor forecasting accuracy for medical materiel requirements in preparation of contingency operations. Using examples from recent operations, to include Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom, this paper identifies how planners forecast requirements, highlights roadblocks to successful forecasting, and describes tools, models, and procedures for forecasting supplies, both internal and external to the Department of Defense. The study concludes that effective forecasting of supplies is accomplished through a collaborative team approach between clinicians, planners, and logisticians. Additionally, planners and logisticians must look beyond authorizations in sets, kits, and outfits when planning for patient treatment within a theater of operations. Among the various tools discussed, those that base medical materiel requirements on a time-phased patient driven scenario show the most promise including the Naval Health Research Centers Estimating Supplies Program and Resupply Validation Program and the Army Medical Research and Materiel Commands Joint Medical Materiel Modeling.
- Medicine and Medical Research
- Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics