Predicting Individual Physiological Responses During Marksmanship Field Training Using an Updated SCENARIO-J Model
ARMY RESEARCH INST OF ENVIRONMENTAL MEDICINE NATICK MA BIOPHYSICS AND BIOMEDICAL MODELING DIV
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SCENARIO-J is a thermoregulatory model developed by Kraning and Gonzalez at the U.S. Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine USARIEM written in the Java program language. Previous field studies suggested that the model needed an adjustment of initial core temperature Tsub cr for individual variation and a metabolic rate M correction during downhill movements. This study evaluated the updated version of the model incorporating these new features, using a dataset collected during U.S. Marine Corps USMC marksmanship training at Quantico, VA Individual anthropometrics, physiological, and environmental time series data were obtained from 4 males age 27 - 1 yr height 177 - 7 cm weight 77.3 - 8.1 kg body fat 15.8 - 3.8, X - 1 SD over 4 days of infantry field marksmanship training at Quantico, VA. This study focused on 2 h of shooting practice, then 30-min marching including uphill and downhill movements in a moderately hot environment air temperature 29.8 - 0.5 C dew point 21 0.5 C. The predicted and observed heart rate HR and Tsub cr measurements were compared by Root Mean Square Deviations RMSD. Overall, the updated features of the current model significantly improved predictions of physiological measures, particularly for downhill marching in the heat. Prediction errors were reduced by 60 for HR and 25 for Tsub cr during marching. However, the model consistently under-predicted both HR and Tsub cr during marksmanship training, indicating that a greater solar effect or non-thermal factors may have required higher M during these periods. Better M estimates are required for slow movements, such as marksmanship, of subjects who experience heat exposure. Improved input for M should result in more accurate simulations of physiological status and better risk assessment, thereby educing heat injuries and improving performance of deployed military personnel.
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