Accession Number:

ADA423541

Title:

Determining the Number of Iterations for Monte Carlo Simulations of Weapon Effectiveness

Descriptive Note:

Technical rept. Mar 2003-Mar 2004

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF MECHANICAL AND ASTRONAUTICAL ENGINEERING

Personal Author(s):

• Driels, Morris R.
• Shin, Young S.

Report Date:

2004-04-01

Pagination or Media Count:

30.0

Abstract:

Many weapon effectiveness tools are implemented using a Monte Carlo simulation approach since closed form solutions are too mathematically intractable to compute. A question that usually arises in connection with such simulations is this how many iterations of a particular Monte Carlo simulation are needed This report proposed the probability-based approach to computing effectiveness measures for better feedback to the user regarding the relationship between the number of iterations executed and confidence measures associated with the result. 4 tables, 4 figures

Descriptors:

• *MONTE CARLO METHOD
• *WEAPON SYSTEM EFFECTIVENESS
• *ITERATIONS
• *CONFIDENCE LEVEL
• *MEASURES OF EFFECTIVENESS
• MATHEMATICAL MODELS
• DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
• ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE
• FEEDBACK
• USER NEEDS
• MEAN
• STANDARD DEVIATION

Subject Categories:

• Statistics and Probability
• Fire Control and Bombing Systems

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE