Effects of Uncertainty on Real World Aerospace Mission Data
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
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Uncertainty is an age old element of warfare. How does one measure success or failure on the battlefield This thesis explores the effect of uncertainty on real world aerospace mission data from Operation Iraqi Freedom OIF. Sources of uncertainty are identified during data preparation and the effects of uncertainty are investigated using multivariate analysis techniques. Two distinct cases are analyzed one case with a low level of uncertainty in predicting whether or not a mission is pre-planned or alert generated, and another case with a high level of uncertainty in predicting whether or not a mission is a success or a failure. Three multivariate analysis techniques are used on both cases Signal-to-Noise Ratio SNR saliency, Feed Forward Neural Network FFNN supervised training, and General Regression Neural Network GRNN supervised training. Measures of performance are gathered from each of these techniques and analyzed to determine the effect of uncertainty on the data.
- Statistics and Probability