Accession Number:

ADA422912

Title:

Estimating Cost Growth in Engineering and Schedule Cost Catergories Using a Two-Pronged Regression Approach

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2004-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

110.0

Abstract:

This research confirms the usefulness of the logistic and multiple regression two-step procedure for assessing cost growth in major DoD weapon systems. We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports SARs between 1990 and 2002 for programs covering all defense departments. Our analysis concentrates on cost growth in the procurement appropriations of the Engineering and Manufacturing Development phase of acquisitions. We investigate the use of logistic regression in cost growth analysis to predict whether or not cost growth will occur in a program. If applicable, multiple regression is implemented to predict how much cost growth will occur. Our study focuses on the engineering and schedule SAR cost variance categories within the procurement appropriations. We study each of these categories individually for significant cost growth characteristics and develop predictive models for each. We discover the two-step logistic and multiple regression approach produces desirable results.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE