Accession Number:

ADA422911

Title:

Verification of the Mountain Wave Forecast Model's Stratospheric Turbulence Forecasts Using Sounding Data and Pilot Reports

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT/DEPT OF ENGINEERING PHYSICS

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2004-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

64.0

Abstract:

Since stratospheric turbulence Stratoturb is becoming an increased concern to the Air Force, the threat of damage to aircraft must be addressed. Therefore, the Air Force Weather Agency AFWA requests an accurate Stratoturb forecast model. In 2002, The Mountain Wave Forecast Model MWFM was modified in order to develop a Stratoturb forecast tool. Turbulence forecasts generated twice daily by the MWFM for locations over East Asia over a period of thirty days were compared to output from the Rawindsonde Observation RAOB program to determine if the model agreed with the program output. Although the results were promising, verification by aircraft crews flying through the stratosphere would improve the confidence of this forecast model, improving the forecaster s ability to warn pilots and alleviate the potential danger associated with flying through areas of Stratoturb. This thesis continues that research. Three major changes were made. Pilot reports PIREPs were collected for verification of MWFM forecasts, the model s time resolution was increased for better comparison to PIREPs, and data were collected for nearly a year to determine season performance. Model performance at ten sounding locations was analyzed to determine if performance improved over a certain terrain type. Model performance at three atmospheric levels 100-70mb, 70-50mb, and 50-30mb was also compared to determine if the model performed better at a certain altitude. Results suggest that the MWFM is superior to previous methods of detecting Stratoturb. Therefore, the MWFM is recommended to AFWA for operational use.

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE