Accession Number:

ADA422893

Title:

Measuring the Risk of Shortfalls in Air Force Capabilities

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis May 2003-Mar 2004

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2004-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

136.0

Abstract:

The U.S. Air Force seeks to measure and prioritize risk as part of its Capabilities Review and Risk Assessment CRRA process. The goal of the CRRA is to identify capability shortfalls, and the risks associated with those shortfalls, to influence future systems acquisition. Many fields, including engineering, medicine and finance, seek to model and measure risks. This research utilizes various risk measurement approaches to propose appropriate risk measures for a military context. Specifically, risk is modeled as a non-negative random variable of severity. Four measures are examined simple expectation, a risk-value measure, tail conditional expectation, and distorted expectation. Risk measures are subsequently used to weight the objective function coefficients in a system acquisition knapsack problem.

Subject Categories:

  • Administration and Management

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE