Accession Number:

ADA422293

Title:

Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Western North Pacific Using the Navy Global Model

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2004-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

139.0

Abstract:

The Tropical Cyclone Vortex Tracking Program is used to identify vortices in the western North Pacific from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System NOGAPS analyses and forecasts during May - October 2002 and 2003. Based on the NOGAPS analyses, several parameters are different between the 23 vortices that developed into storms during 2002 according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center JTWC and the 231 vortices that did not develop. After eliminating 127 vortices that did not persist at least 24 h, this left 104 non developing cases. For the developing circulations, the average 850- mb relative vorticity value at the first JTWC-warning time was 5.0 x 10-5 s-1, with an easterly deep layer wind shear of-1.8 m s-1.

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE