Accession Number:

ADA422013

Title:

Deterrence Theory: Success or Failure in Arab-Israeli Wars?

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIV WASHINGTON DC INST FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1995-10-01

Pagination or Media Count:

89.0

Abstract:

Rational deterrence theory provides scholars with an explanatory framework which specifies the requirements for the success and failure of deterrence. Yet, conclusive empirical evidence that deterrence successes occur has eluded deterrence theorists. According to Richard N. Lehow and Janice G. Stein, the main critics in the most recent challenge to deterrence theory, the empirical evidence suggests that deterrence rarely succeeds. They argue that a review of international incidents over the last ninety years reveals only three cases of extended immediate deterrence success. Based on this review, as well as on their own empirical investigations, Lebow and Stein conclude that deterrence rarely succeeds and that leaders, because of political vulnerabilities, challenge deterrence even when the defenders threats are credible. Lebow and Stein argue that among the most important findings with respect to the dependent variable is the seemingly elusive and fragile nature of the success of immediate deterrence.

Subject Categories:

  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE