Predictive Power for Program Success from Engineering and Manufacturing Development Performance Trends
DEFENSE ACQUISITION UNIV FT BELVOIR VA
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This study examined 28 acquisition program characteristics to determine if any of them could be a predictor of program performance during the Engineering and Manufacturing Development EMD phase of development. A population of 46 programs with EMD completion dates from 1980 to 1997 was used. The population was divided into two groups using EMD duration overrun as the criterion. The two groups were confirmed as statistically separate for schedule. Defining the greater overrun group as the bad programs, it was found that all the characteristics correlated to badness were dependent on schedule performance they were descriptive rather than predictive. It was also found that the Selective Acquisition Reporting system had succeeded in identifying the bad programs but corrective measures, if any, were ineffective. Additional research indicated that the contract type most likely to lead to success in EMD was Cost Plus Incentive Fee.
- Manufacturing and Industrial Engineering and Control of Production Systems