Accession Number:

ADA413830

Title:

Estimating Procurement Cost Growth Using Logistic and Multiple Regression

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH DEPT OF MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2003-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

70.0

Abstract:

Cost Growth in Department of Defense DoD major systems has been an ongoing problems for more than 30 years. Previous research has demonstrated the use of two-step logistic and multiple regression methodology to predicting cost growth produces desirables results traditional single-step regression. This research effort validates, and further explores the use of a two-step procedure for assessing DoD major weapon system cost growth using historical data. We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports SARs between 1990 and 2001 for programs covering all defense departments. Our analysis concentrates on cost growth in procurement dollar accounts for the Engineering and Manufacturing Development phase of acquisition. We investigate the use of logistic regression in cost growth analysis to predict whether or not procurement cost growth will occur in a program. If applicable, the multiple regression step is implemented to predict how much procurement cost growth will occur. Our study considers all seven SAR categories within the procurement accounts - engineering, schedule, estimating, support, quantity,economic, and other, but we refrain from analyzing these categories individually. Consequently, we focus on the total procurement cost growth incurred from these five categories during the Engineering and Manufacturing Development phase of acquisition.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE