Accession Number:

ADA402898

Title:

Modeling Man-Made Epidemics

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2002-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

76.0

Abstract:

This thesis develops a mathematical model to explore epidemic spread through the Ground Combat Element GCE of the Marine Expeditionary Unit MEU. The model will simulate an epidemic caused by a biological attack using an agent that has the ability to spread through person-to-person contact small pox hemorrhagic fever, etc. A stochastic modeling process will be used along with widely accepted mathematical formulas an SEIR Susceptible- Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemic model. A heterogeneous population composed of numerous homogenous subgroups with varying interaction rates simulates the unique structure of military combat units. The model will be evaluated to determine which units facilitate the most rapid spread of the epidemic. The model will then test a number of different scenarios to determine the effects of varying quarantine techniques, vaccination strategies and protective postures on the spread of the diseases.

Subject Categories:

  • Medicine and Medical Research
  • Chemical, Biological and Radiological Warfare

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE