Accession Number:

ADA399370

Title:

Analyzing Complex Threats for Operations and Readiness (ACTOR)

Descriptive Note:

Final rept. Jun 2000-Sep 2001

Corporate Author:

CENTER FOR ARMY ANALYSIS FORT BELVOIR VA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2001-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

44.0

Abstract:

This study uses recently developed data mining tools and draws upon an extensive database that includes annually aggregated data covering political, economic, and socio-cultural domains for some 159 countries over the period 1975-1999 to forecast the likelihood that countries throughout the world will experience a certain level of intensity of instability over the period 2001-2015. The study uses a pattern classification algorithm-Fuzzy Analysis of Statistical Evidence FASE--developed by Chen 2000 on behalf of the US Army to identify and analyze the relationships between country macro-structural factors and historical occurrences of instability. The results demonstrate the potential capability of the model to accurately forecast not just the occurrence, but also the level, of intensity of country instability 6 years in advance with about 80 percent overall accuracy. The results of the analysis are used in support of the Enabling Strategic Responsiveness ESR and Deployment Optimization Research in Tools and Operations DORITO studies.

Subject Categories:

  • Defense Systems
  • Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies
  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE