Accession Number:

ADA379901

Title:

Comparison and Evaluation of Operational Mesoscale MM5 and BFM Over WSMR

Descriptive Note:

Final rept.

Corporate Author:

ARMY RESEARCH LAB WHITE SANDS MISSILE RANGE NM BATTLEFIELD ENVIRONMENT DIRECTORATE

Personal Author(s):

• Henmi, Teizi

Report Date:

2000-05-01

Pagination or Media Count:

58.0

Abstract:

Forecast data of both Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model MM5 and the Battlescale Forecast Model BFM were statistically compared with the Surface Atmosphere Measuring System SAMS data at the White Sands Missile Range covering the period of April and May 1999. Archived forecast data from MM5 and SAMS, and output data from the BFM are used for this study. Statistical parameters such as mean difference, absolute difference, root mean square error, and root mean square vector error are calculated between forecast data and observed data for both models. Surface meteorological parameters, temperature, relative humidity, horizontal wind vector components, and wind speed are used for the present study. Statistics for individual stations as well as all the SAMS stations covering the 42-day period are analyzed. This study shows that both models predicted the surface temperature fields well. MM5 tends to over predict relative humidity, whereas BFM tends to under predict it. Both models tend to under predict wind speed, but the BFM calculation produces smaller wind speeds than MM5. The BFM produced a better vector wind than did MM5.

Descriptors:

• *WEATHER FORECASTING
• TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
• METEOROLOGICAL DATA
• ERROR ANALYSIS
• WIND DIRECTION
• WIND VELOCITY
• SURFACE TEMPERATURE
• ATMOSPHERE MODELS
• HUMIDITY

Subject Categories:

• Meteorology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE