Accession Number:

ADA379813

Title:

Effects of Terrain, Maneuver Tactics, and C4ISR on the Effectiveness of Long-Range Precison Fires. A Stochastic Multiresolution Model (PEM) Calibrated to High-Resolution Simulation

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2000-01-01

Pagination or Media Count:

121.0

Abstract:

This study was motivated by the results of high-resolution simulations of long-range precision fires that were employed against an invader marching through mixed terrain. Although effectiveness was expected to be less than for desert-terrain cases, it proved much less than anticipated DSB, 1998a,b. It was clear that many factors were at work, so providing a physical explanation and projecting results for other circumstances was not straightforward. We therefore began to develop a multiresolution family of models to better understand the phenomena, permit the broad-ranging exploratory analysis for which high-resolution simulation is inappropriate, and suggest priorities for field experiments. If successful, our work would illustrate concretely how such a family-of-models approach-coupled with experiments-could be taken routinely to improve military analysis and its underlying military science. This report, then, describes a fast-running, stochastic, multiresolution desktop model PEM and its calibration to data from high-resolution simulation. We also describe a simplified and deterministic Repro model called RPEM for possible use in more aggregated campaign-level models such as JICM or JWARS. PEM and RPEM could substantially improve the defense communitys ability to reflect, in routine analysis, many effects of C4ISR, the maneuver tactics of the invasion force, and relatively detailed characteristics of the long-range fires. However, more empirical work and high-resolution simulations are also badly needed.

Descriptors:

• *MATHEMATICAL MODELS
• *STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
• *ACCURACY
• *HIGH RESOLUTION
• *AIRCRAFT FIRE CONTROL SYSTEMS
• SIMULATION
• RESOLUTION
• FIELD TESTS
• TERRAIN
• LONG RANGE(DISTANCE)
• PRECISION
• MIXING
• MANEUVERS
• CALIBRATION
• BATTLES
• MILITARY TACTICS

Subject Categories:

• Fire Control and Bombing Systems

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE