Accession Number:

ADA379705

Title:

A Multivariate Time Series Analysis of U.S. Army Recruiting

Descriptive Note:

Master's thesis

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA

Personal Author(s):

• Burger, Eric C.

Report Date:

2000-06-01

Pagination or Media Count:

110.0

Abstract:

The United States Army Recruiting Command requires tools to quantify the impact of factors in the recruiting environment, identify differences in the recruiting processes across its five regional subordinate units, and measure the effectiveness of its policies and resource expenditures. This thesis examines recruiting data for the high-quality male demographic from July 1992 to September 1997. It uses multivariate time series analysis to predict the number of enlistment contracts signed in a month as a function of fifteen exogenous and endogenous factors plus monthly indicators. A stepwise recursion using bootstrap simulation is developed to identify significant factors in the multivariate time series. The significant factors in the reduced models are compared to those contained in models developed in previous studies. The models are also used to create nine- month projections of recruiting production, which are compared to known production figures from test set data to determine forecast accuracy. The results of this research support the intuition that the influential factors differ by region. The stepwise model reduction recursion using bootstrap simulation offers potential for further refinement and application.

Descriptors:

• *ARMY PERSONNEL
• *MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS
• *RECRUITING
• *TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
• SIMULATION
• EXPERIMENTAL DATA
• POLICIES
• ENVIRONMENTS
• CONTRACTS
• PRODUCTION
• IMPACT
• MODELS
• FORECASTING
• ACCURACY
• THESES
• REDUCTION
• RECURSIVE FUNCTIONS
• RESEARCH MANAGEMENT
• INDICATORS
• TEST SETS

Subject Categories:

• Personnel Management and Labor Relations
• Numerical Mathematics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE