Comparison of TAMS/RT Surface Wind, Temperature, and Pressure Fields With Surface Observations and Model Analyses in the Socal Area
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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The Tactical Atmospheric Modeling SystemReat Time TAMSRT combines the high-resolution Coupled OceanAtmosphere Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System COAMPS and the Tactical Environmental Data Server TEDS. In this study, we evaluate TAMSRT sea level pressure, 10 meter m winds and 2 m air temperature fields generated at the Naval Pacific Meteorology Oceanography Center NPMOC in San Diego. We qualitatively compare outer nest 45 and 54 kms sea level pressure 12 and 24-hour forecasts with model analyses. Then we quantitatively compare surface observations with inner nest 5 and 6 kms model wind u and v and temperature forecast fields 00, 06, 12, 18, and 24-hour. Contrary to expectations, we found no error growth through the forecast cycle and relatively high error in the initial analysis for all variables. When examined by 0000Z and 1200Z model runs, we found a repetitive pattern related to the diurnal cycle which impact use by a forecaster. We link day to day error to the diurnal pattern and larger magnitude error to cold starts, background fields, and data assimilation problems. We observed high variability among observed and model values but still found various model trends that require further evaluation.