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# Accession Number:

## ADA370548

# Title:

## Probability of Negation for Cruise Missiles Using Least Defendable Routes,

# Descriptive Note:

# Corporate Author:

## BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE ORGANIZATION WASHINGTON DC

# Report Date:

## 1999-07-22

# Pagination or Media Count:

##
25.0

# Abstract:

## Probability of Negation Psub N of an enemy missile depends upon its path from its launch point to its intended asset target. Since Ballistic Missile BM trajectories can be predicted uniquely, once the BMs trajectory is known, then its Psub N can be calculated in terms of the probabilities of success in the three major functions. Sensor, BMC4I and Weapon. In contrast, the Cruise Missile CM route between its launch point and its intended asset is preplanned by the enemy, based upon his perception of the defenses performance and beddown, so that his CM will take the route of maximum Probability of Survival Psub S corresponding to minimum predicted Psub N while in transit. This particular route is called the Least Defendable Route LDR. In our method, Poisson density is used to define a risk field risk per unit route length along source type eight cardinal directions in terms of Probability of Detection, Engagement Volumes volumes of space where engagements are feasible and Engagement Lengths length between successive engagements for each engagement unit. The LDR between two points is found by directly maximizing Psub S through minimizing the cumulative risk defined as the sum of risk along a route connecting those two points using the DEsopo-Pape Algorithm. The resulting maximum Psub S contour map represents the offenses perception of vulnerability. For the same LDRs, one can perform a model simulation, including additional details, and generate the defenses minimum Psub N contour map. These two maps Psub S and Psub N provide complementary views for CM Defense.

# Distribution Statement:

## APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

#