Accession Number:

ADA364392

Title:

How Probability Theory Can Help Us Design Rule-Based Systems

Descriptive Note:

Professional paper

Corporate Author:

SPACE AND NAVAL WARFARE SYSTEMS COMMANDSAN DIEGO CA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1998-06-01

Pagination or Media Count:

13.0

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with finding improved methods of reasoning for use in rule-based systems that perform diagnosis in general and situation assessment is particular. It is argued that, because the rules used in rule-based systems typically have exceptions, the rules must be interpreted probabilistically. Thus, if a rule If A then B has exceptions, then what the rule really means is that the conditional probability of B given A is close to one. A rule-inference criterion that makes use of second-order probability concepts is advocated. Interestingly, this inference criterion is equivalent to some non-probabilistic inference criteria. The paper expounds a scheme for constructing situation-assessment systems that could be used as either decision aids or as reasoning components of computer generated forces.

Subject Categories:

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Computer Programming and Software

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE