# Accession Number:

## ADA364392

# Title:

## How Probability Theory Can Help Us Design Rule-Based Systems

# Descriptive Note:

## Professional paper

# Corporate Author:

## SPACE AND NAVAL WARFARE SYSTEMS COMMANDSAN DIEGO CA

# Personal Author(s):

# Report Date:

## 1998-06-01

# Pagination or Media Count:

## 13.0

# Abstract:

This paper is concerned with finding improved methods of reasoning for use in rule-based systems that perform diagnosis in general and situation assessment is particular. It is argued that, because the rules used in rule-based systems typically have exceptions, the rules must be interpreted probabilistically. Thus, if a rule If A then B has exceptions, then what the rule really means is that the conditional probability of B given A is close to one. A rule-inference criterion that makes use of second-order probability concepts is advocated. Interestingly, this inference criterion is equivalent to some non-probabilistic inference criteria. The paper expounds a scheme for constructing situation-assessment systems that could be used as either decision aids or as reasoning components of computer generated forces.

# Descriptors:

# Subject Categories:

- Statistics and Probability
- Computer Programming and Software