How Probability Theory Can Help Us Design Rule-Based Systems
SPACE AND NAVAL WARFARE SYSTEMS COMMANDSAN DIEGO CA
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This paper is concerned with finding improved methods of reasoning for use in rule-based systems that perform diagnosis in general and situation assessment is particular. It is argued that, because the rules used in rule-based systems typically have exceptions, the rules must be interpreted probabilistically. Thus, if a rule If A then B has exceptions, then what the rule really means is that the conditional probability of B given A is close to one. A rule-inference criterion that makes use of second-order probability concepts is advocated. Interestingly, this inference criterion is equivalent to some non-probabilistic inference criteria. The paper expounds a scheme for constructing situation-assessment systems that could be used as either decision aids or as reasoning components of computer generated forces.
- Statistics and Probability
- Computer Programming and Software