A Statistical Analysis of the Deterrence and Substitution Effects of the Military Services' Drug Prevention Programs
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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This thesis measures the deterrence and substitution effects of the militarys drug testing program. Data used is from the 1995 and 1980 versions of the Department of Defense Survey of Health Related Behaviors Among Military Personnel and the 1995 and 1979 versions of the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse. The statistical analyses examine three separate but related topics 1 The deterrence effect of the militarys drug prevention programs 2 The possible substitution of legal for illegal substances and 3 The role of selection bias in estimates of the deterrence effect. The results indicate that the militarys drug testing program is a deterrence to illicit drug use. The results also provide evidence that the militarys drug testing program produces an unanticipated positive effect of reducing heavy alcohol consumption. Lastly, results of our analysis indicate that there is no selection bias individuals who are likely to choose military service would not be less prone to use illicit drugs than their civilian counterparts in the absence of the testing program.
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