Global Climate Modelling and its Validation With Emphasis on the Hydrological Cycle,
MAX-PLANCK-INST FUER METEOROLOGIE HAMBURG (GERMANY F R)
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The availability of observations for global data assimilation and problems with analysing them is discussed. Short-range forecasts from ECMWF can be used to estimate daily precipitation distributions. As an example of GCMs the MPI model will be described. The ability of the ECHAM3 model to simulated the hydrological cycle of the atmosphere is investigated. Results from decadal simulations of the atmosphere will be shown and compared with observations. Problems with model validation will be demonstrated, which partly are due to uncertainties in observed data and partly due to uncertainties in boundary values in model runs. Also uncertainties in the model formulations will be shown. Mostly the model simulations lie within the range of realizations of climatological estimates though some model deficiencies become obvious.
- Hydrology, Limnology and Potamology