Nonlinear Methods Applied to Atmospheric Prediction
Final progress rept. 1 May 96-30 Jun 98
FLORIDA STATE UNIV TALLAHASSEE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS INST
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Although our research grant was terminated prematurely, we were rather productive in research and publication under AFOSR Grant F49620-96-1-0172. As detailed in section 8 of the Final Report, eleven papers have been published or accepted for publication, three others have been submitted, and six more are in various stages of completion based on research supported entirely or in part by this grant. During the grant period, the principal investigator, Professor Richard Pfeffer, was named Distinguished Research Professor by Florida State University. Also a special issue of the scientific journal Dynamics of Atmospheres end Oceans was dedicated to the scientific end administrative accomplishments of Professor Pfeffer. Significant technology transitions were accomplished, as detailed in Section 8 of the Final Report. The results of our research include 1 the determination of certain limitations on the applicability of the averaging method to problems in which the underlying chaotic attractor e.g., the Lorenz attractor consists of motions around two different equilibrium points in planes that are at an angle to each other in phase space. This work is reported in Section 2a of the Final Report. 2 the determination of the profound influence of meridional shear on the growth and nonlinear life cycles of synoptic-scale atmospheric disturbances, and also on the onset of blocking. Our analytic studies on this subject, completed under this grant, all of which have relevance to the forecast problem, are reported in Section 2b of the Final Report. 3 the success of a pilot study in statistical weather prediction of precipitation reported in Section 3 of the Final Report.
- Atmospheric Physics