Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part 2. Climatology and Refinement of Meteorological Knowledge Base
Interim rept. Dec 1997-Sep 1998
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
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The preliminary adaptation by Bannister et al. 1997 of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone TC track forecasting meteorological knowledge base to the Southern Hemisphere has been extended to eight seasons 1990-91 through 1997-98, which includes 145 90 cyclones in the South Indian Pacific region. A total of 3257 synoptic patternregion classifications could be described in the context of only four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Updated track summaries in each patternregion combination, and the recurring more than three environment structure transitions are provided. Refinements in the set of TC-environment transitional mechanisms in the meteorological knowledge base include 1 new Equatorial Westerly Wind Burst Mechanism 2 new semi-direct TC interaction equatorward conceptual model 3 additional variations of the Subtropical Ridge Modulation mechanisms and 4 further cases of Vertical Wind Shear leading to dramatic TC track changes. These refinements are illustrated with case studies intended to assist the forecaster in recognizing these transitional mechanisms, and thus anticipating TC track changes in the Southern Hemisphere.