Revised Baseline Budget Projections for Fiscal Years 1999-2008
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE (U S CONGRESS) WASHINGTON DC
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In the course of preparing its annual analysis of the Presidents budget, the Congressional Budget Office CBO typically updates its baseline projections to take account of new information from the Presidents budget and other sources. The revised March projections usually become the baseline for the budget resolution. CBOs new March projections are not materially different from those issued in its January 1998 report, The Economic and Budget Outlook Fiscal Years 1999-2008. The only major change since January is an increase in revenues from 1998 through 2000 to reflect more rapid inflows into the Treasury than either CBO or the Administration had anticipated. That change, however, is enough to shift CBOs projections from small annual deficits to small annual surpluses during those years. CBO expects that the budget surplus for this year will be nearly 8 billion. Assuming that current policies do not change and that the economy stays on the anticipated course, surpluses are projected to rise eventually to 138 billion in 2008. Both federal spending and revenues are expected to total around 1.7 trillion this year - or approximately 20 percent of gross domestic product GDP. Under CBOs baseline assumptions, projected outlays as a percentage of GDP fall gradually to 18.3 percent by 2008. Revenues decline to 19.3 percent of GDP by 2003 and remain at that level through 2008.
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