A Statistical Analysis of the Deterrence Effects of the Military Services' Drug Testing Policies
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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This thesis examines the magnitude of the deterrence effect associated with the military services drug testing policies. Using data from the 1995 Department of Defense Survey of Health Related Behaviors Among Military Personnel and the 1995 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse, illicit drug use rates are modeled as a function of pertinent demographic characteristics. The natural variation in drug testing policies is exploited to estimate the deterrence effects of such programs. The first analysis relies on the variation in drug testing policies among the military services. The second analysis relies on the difference in the extent of drug testing between the military and civilian sectors. Non-linear maximum likelihood logit techniques are used to estimate the deterrence effects. The results indicate a significant deterrence effect associated with the frequency and intensity of the services drug testing program both in comparison to each other and in comparison to the civilian sector. However, omission of price and income controls may have caused overestimation of the true deterrence value. Further study using more sophisticated techniques is recommended to clarify this potential bias.
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