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A Model for Nuclear Arms Control in the 21st Century
AIR COMMAND AND STAFF COLL MAXWELL AFB AL
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This paper breaks new ground by developing an innovative arms control model to explain how nations use instruments of national power to achieve their strategic arms control objectives. The model uses the principles of feedback to show the cause and effect relationship between two or more countries with competing arms control objectives. Feedback is a natural process present in almost all dynamic systems involving human behavior. The paper develops a notional political feedback loop where the country to be influenced is defined as a system. Another nation then uses its instruments of national power to influence this system to achieve the desired arms control outcome. After an overview of arms control issues in the post-Cold War, the paper transitions into the ideas and concepts used to develop the arms control model. The arms control model described here is fully universal. To present the model, this paper uses the United States and Ukraine as pilot countries. Ukraine is a real-world example where the United States has a vested interest in nuclear arms control. After the United States-Ukraine case study, the authors suggest how nations will employ arms control in the future. Although the focus of this paper is on nuclear arms control, the model is applicable to all weapons of mass destruction. The paper closes with a summary of results and suggests how to use the model for further research.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE