Faculty Forecast and Planning Model for the Naval Postgraduate School.
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
Pagination or Media Count:
This thesis develops a model for the Naval Postgraduate School NPS to forecast future tenure-track faculty size and distribution. It enables decision makers to analyze the effects of tenure and retirement policies as well as determine recruitment levels to achieve and maintain a desired number of faculty members. The model estimates faculty retention characteristics, or continuation rates based upon the length of federal service LFS associated with historic loss data. These continuation rates are applied to a cross- sectional faculty profile to predict faculty legacies, i.e. the number of faculty who will continue service at NPS. Results show that faculty levels can be predicted with relative certainty out to a two year horizon. Additionally, the results show how salary increases in the early 1990s induced a delay in faculty retirements. We also present an embellishment to the model which incorporates age at loss as well as LFS to forecast only retirements. The forecasts from this model are not as conclusive as those obtained from the original.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations