A Survey of Credibility Theory
CALIFORNIA UNIV BERKELEY OPERATIONS RESEARCH CENTER
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Credibility theory is the name given by American actuaries to linear estimation formulae developed to experience rate insurance premiums. These formulae can be viewed as linear Bayesian Forecasts of a conditional mean, exact under certain conditions, and best least squares approximations otherwise. This paper surveys the recent theoretical developments in the actuarial literature, relates these results to other linear estimation methods, and describes a variety of special models and applications.
- Statistics and Probability