Adding Distributions to ASCAM.
TRANSPORTATION COMMAND SCOTT AFB IL
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Although large simulation and optimization models exist for mobility planning, these require significant setup time, and were not designed for quick and dirty estimates of closure times. The Airlift Sealift Cycle Analysis Model ASCAM was designed using Excel for quick and dirty transportation mobility analysis. This report describes work performed by Dr. Sam L. Savage in coordination with the Directorate of Plans and Policy, US Transportation Command USTRANSCOM. The work provided improvements to the ASCAM model as follows User Interface - separate data from formulas to allow scalability. Stochastic Modeling Capability - uncertain numbers may be modeled by distributions whereupon Monte Carlo simulations can be run. The resulting model ASCAM3.1, allows numbers not known with certainty like MOG - Maximum On Ground capacity, to be replaced with stochastic representations distributions, whereupon a Monte Carlo simulation may be run. the result is that the potential for errors in the expected closure are reduced and it is possible to provide the user with a range of closure times and associated probabilities using ASCAM.
- Computer Programming and Software
- Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies
- Operations Research