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Modeling and Simulation for Air Defense Force Allocation Planning.

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Master's thesis,

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The use of force ratios is an extremely valuable planning tool for the U.S. Army. Analysis of force ratios provides planning staffs and commanders an indication of the required combat power for successful operations. While the use of force ratios is prevalent for analyzing maneuver force allocation, little effort has been made to apply this technique to air defense operations. The initial attempt at force ratio analysis within the air defense domain, Correlation of Forces Air COFA, achieves limited success. However, the COFA process suffers from several shortcomings. This research develops a methodology that is a substantial improvement over COFA for air defense planning. Through the use of a designed experiment, the study demonstrates the possibility of modeling the modern air defense battle from simulation data. The experiment produced two distinct response equations modeling the effects of the various weapon systems on determining the remaining air defense and task force assets. The development of the means to assess these two success criteria serves as the basis for the construction of an alternative force allocation planning tool. This study introduces a spreadsheet based air defense force allocation planning tool. The tool rapidly produces point estimates of the responses for multiple combinations of air defense assets opposing an established air threat. Additionally, the tool generates the data needed to quickly construct prediction intervals for each predicted response. These capabilities mark a significant improvement in force ratio analysis for air defense operations. The spreadsheet planning tool equips the Air Defense Artillery commander with the information needed to make crucial force allocation decisions.

Subject Categories:

  • Administration and Management
  • Military Forces and Organizations
  • Antiaircraft Defense Systems

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