Through a Clouded Prism: Forecasting Intra-State Conflicts at the Operational Level.
ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED MIL ITARY STUDIES
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This monograph discusses the use of the U.S. Southern Command Small Wars Operational Research Directorate SWORD model along with traditional intelligence preparation of the battlefield IPB to forecast the direction of intra-state conflicts at the operational level. Enabling factors for forecasting are the information input to the model, the command and control structure, and selection and training of personnel and organizations. The monograph first examines the current national security environment, especially the increase in the number of stability and support operations. Next, the foundation and pitfalls of forecasting military affairs are examined. The theory of revolutionary conflict is introduced, and the SWORD model is provided as a means to forecast these conflicts. IPB at the strategic and operational level is discussed, with its application to the SWORD model. Enabling factors and their impact on the ability to conduct forecasting is followed by a dialogue of the forecasting system in totality. The synergy of the various enablers on the IPBSWORD model system provides insights into the issues operational planners need to consider during stability and support operations in a low intensity conflict environment. Degradation of the enabling factors impairs the ability to conduct forecasts.
- Military Intelligence
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics