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Weapons Systems Effectiveness and Minimum Cost for Ballistic Missile Defense Alternatives,

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The use of SCUD missiles by the Iraqis in the 1991 Gulf War signaled the emergence of a new threat against which current U.S. defenses are limited. One message from the Gulf War is that defending ports, strategic off-load air fields, marshaling areas, and population centers against Theater Ballistic Missiles TBM will be of mounting concern in future conflicts. The Ballistic Missile Defense Organization BMDO, in conjunction with the military services, is currently evaluating various Theater Ballistic Missile Defense TBMD systems to defend critical friendly assets called targets in this paper against current and projected short range, medium range, and long range TBMs. The cost for defending these assets depends on the number and type of threat TBMs that emerge, and the mix of defensive missiles arrayed against them. There are several problems associated with designing the most cost effective mix of TBMD systems. First, the time needed to deploy all systems relative to the warning time available is uncertain. Second, even if enemy TBM inventories are known and there is some uncertainty here, especially in projected forces, the targeting strategy may be unknown. We dont know, for example, precisely what mix of short, medium, and long range TBMs will be used against a particular target. How then, in the face of such uncertainties, can we plan to acquire reasonable defenses in the most cost-effective way In this paper we develop the first steps of an approach to determine the TBMD architecture that minimizes cost or maximizes effectiveness. This approach is based on a statistical theory of enemy attack and TBMD strategies, and employs the general formalism used earlier by one of us Kohlberg 1980 1 for a very different problem in nuclear C survivability.

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  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Antimissile Defense Systems

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