Shipboard Casualty Forecasting: Adjustments to Ship Hit Probabilities.
Final rept. Aug 95-Aug 96,
NAVAL HEALTH RESEARCH CENTER SAN DIEGO CA
Pagination or Media Count:
Adjustment factors needed to contemporize World War Il-based hit probabilities of the SHIPCAS casualty projection model were investigated. Subject Matter Experts provided quantitive responses corresponding to the perceived shifts in hit probability associated with each present-day weapon system when compared to the baseline hit rate. The largest projected increases in hit probability were associated with submarine-launched guided missiles and submarine launched torpedos with passive homing systems. Hit probabilities associated with individual weapon system ranged from a 90 decrease to a 233 increase when compared to WWII ship hit likelihood. Empirical data also indicated that ship hit likelihood decreased with distance from land objective.
- Weapons Effects (Biological)
- Statistics and Probability
- Marine Engineering