Accession Number:

ADA317467

Title:

Shipboard Casualty Forecasting: Adjustments to Ship Hit Probabilities.

Descriptive Note:

Final rept. Aug 95-Aug 96,

Corporate Author:

NAVAL HEALTH RESEARCH CENTER SAN DIEGO CA

Report Date:

1996-07-30

Pagination or Media Count:

27.0

Abstract:

Adjustment factors needed to contemporize World War Il-based hit probabilities of the SHIPCAS casualty projection model were investigated. Subject Matter Experts provided quantitive responses corresponding to the perceived shifts in hit probability associated with each present-day weapon system when compared to the baseline hit rate. The largest projected increases in hit probability were associated with submarine-launched guided missiles and submarine launched torpedos with passive homing systems. Hit probabilities associated with individual weapon system ranged from a 90 decrease to a 233 increase when compared to WWII ship hit likelihood. Empirical data also indicated that ship hit likelihood decreased with distance from land objective.

Subject Categories:

  • Weapons Effects (Biological)
  • Statistics and Probability
  • Marine Engineering

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE