World Defense Track Prospects.
LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT INST MCLEAN VA
Pagination or Media Count:
The Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Production Resources DASDPR requested that the Logistics Management Institute LME project world defense trade from 1994 through the year 2000. DASDPR provided LMI with a data base on arms trade and potential economic and financial explanatory variables for 138 countries over the 1981-1991 period. The authors applied pooled cross-section and time series econometric techniques to test various international trade models. Arms trade is explained very well by contemporaneous and lagged military expenditures and the presence or absence of a cold war environment. Utilizing that model, various military activity scenarios are specified to provide a range of arms trade projections for the Middle East, East Asia, and the rest of the world. The implications for the U.S. defense industrial base are also discussed.
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Government and Political Science
- Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies