The Utility of Quantitative Methods for Political Intelligence Analysis. A Case Study in Latin America
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH
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The paper examines the suitability of current intelligence analysis developed during the Cold War era and finds a lack of quantitative techniques that are prevalent in academic social science research. Several areas where quantitative research might be applied successfully to intelligence analysis are proposed. A case study examining political instability in Latin America is utilized to demonstrate how these techniques might be applied. Data is taken from the World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators for nineteen Latin American countries. Two simple models are developed using bivariate and multiple regression techniques applied to time series analysis. A scenario for how these models might be applied in the intelligence collection, analysis, and policy formation process is postulated. The paper concludes that quantitative methods can have significant utility for the intelligence community in concert with current analytical methods. Suggestions are provided as to how these techniques might be incorporated into the intelligence community.
- Government and Political Science