Tropical Cyclone Intensity Relationships.
AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH
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This paper provides a summary description of relationships between tropical cyclone TC intensity and sea surface temperatures SST wherein intensity is characterized in terms of both minimum central sea level pressure MSLP and maximum tangential wind velocity VTmax. SSTs are represented as monthly mean climatological values on a one degreelat x lon grid spacing. Observational data for hurricanes and typhoons are from the Gray and Shea 1976 data summary and from the U.S. Navy Typhoon Analysis TYAN data set. Gridded upper-air data from the Climate Analysis Center are used to describe climatological upper air features. A highly variable range of TC intensity values is observed for each value of SST. These differences are largely due to several factors including variations in the inner-core structure of individual TCs, latitude, season and environmental influences. Knowledge of these variable relationships helps to explain much of the observed deviation from the standard Maximum Potential Intensity MPI forecast relationships which are currently in use the latter rely primarily on SST. An historical review of how MPI forecasts have been made is presented, as well as the likely route for further improvements of MPI forecasts. Variations of the commonly accepted pressure-wind relationship are analyzed and their practical limitations in operational meteorology are discussed. Extensive graphical and statistical information on intensity versus SST for different oceanic basins, latitude, and season is included in the appendices. MM
- Physical and Dynamic Oceanography