Accession Number:

ADA295372

Title:

Reasoning Under Uncertainty.

Descriptive Note:

Final technical rept. 15 Sep 91-14 Nov 94,

Corporate Author:

IBM ALMADEN RESEARCH CENTER SAN JOSE CA

Personal Author(s):

• Halpern, Joseph Y.

Report Date:

1995-01-26

Pagination or Media Count:

10.0

Abstract:

This report summarizes the research performed under this contract. The research can he divided into four areas 1 Computing degrees of belief, 2 Reasoning about knowledge and communication, 3 Nonmonotonic reasoning, and 4 Belief change. Topic 1 is concerned with how an agent such as a doctor should assign degrees of belief to events such as Tom has hepatitis given a large knowledge base of first-order and statistical information such as 90 of patients with jaundice have hepatitis. The research in topic 2 focused on how knowledge changes as a result of communication and finding models for algorithmic computable knowledge. The work in topic 3 involved an analysis of the notion of only knowing and the introduction of a new tool to model model likelihood, plausibility measures. Finally, the work on topic 4 focused on finding appropriate models that could capture belief, plausibility, and time, and showing how they could be used to provide a deeper understanding of earlier work, as well as providing new results. Other highlights of the contract period are also listed, and a list of papers published under the contract is appended.

Descriptors:

• *UNCERTAINTY
• *REASONING
• *JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY)
• ALGORITHMS
• COMPUTATIONS
• MODELS
• TOOLS
• STATISTICAL INFERENCE
• PROBABILITY
• STATISTICAL DATA
• COMMUNICATION AND RADIO SYSTEMS
• KNOWLEDGE BASED SYSTEMS
• PHYSICIANS
• HEPATITIS

Subject Categories:

• Psychology
• Cybernetics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE