The Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 1996-2000.
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE (U S CONGRESS) WASHINGTON DC
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No fundamental change in the economic or budget situation has occurred since the Congressional Budget Office CBO published The Economic and Budget Outlook An Update in August 1994. The economy may be a bit more ro bust in 1995 than had been anticipated at that time, but a likely slowdown in growth in 1996 leaves the long-term economic outlook little different from last summer 5. CBO expects that the high levels of business investment and purchases of durable goods that spurred the economy to a 3.7 percent real rate of growth in 1994 will continue into the first part of 1995. Because the economy is already operating close to its potential the level of gross domestic product, or GDP, consistent with a stable rate of inflation, that growth is expected to result in somewhat higher rates of inflation and interest. In turn, those higher interest rates are likely to slow growth by the end of 1995--cutting it to 2.5 percent in 1995 and 1.9 percent in 1996 and dampening inflationary pressures. In CBOs longer-term projections, average annual growth after 1996 is close to the 2.4 percent rate of growth estimated for potential GDP over the 1997-2000 period covered by those projections, inflation averages 3.4 percent and interest rates drift down.
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